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A Dangerous Place

The obvious response to anyone who makes such a claim about our world is, “D’oh.” But Social Sense wonders if most people know how dangerous our world has become. Even among those of us who proclaim a keen sense of the obvious, we note interesting developments in the waning days of one administration, and the early formative years of its successor. If anyone knows anything at all about Russian history and culture, then it was not a surprise when Russia invaded Georgia. They’ve been doing that sort of thing since the 18th Century. But we should understand that the Russians never do anything “out of hand,” or without a reason. We might wonder what that reason was, beyond seeing how far they could go.

A well-planned attack on innocent tourists in Mumbai (formerly Bombay) leaves us with no illusions about the intent of fanatical Islam. One might think that in a nation that holds the world record for acts of Islamic terror, India would have been better prepared to deal with the inevitable, but that isn’t what happened. In one story, a hotel manager placed himself in harms way to protect two of his guests, while Indian police officials cowered behind parked cars. Maybe that was the defining revelation. We don’t have those sort of problems here . . . our first responders are beyond courageous in the face of great danger — but we do have borders that leak like sieves.

China too is being creative lately, and I can guarantee every reader that China never does anything without a well considered, well-planned reason. Within the past few years, China has established “warm” relationships with several South American countries, even including “military assistance.” That should worry our State Department and CIA . . . but there’s no reason for us to have much confidence in the beltway bureaucrats. China is up to more than just stepping on our toes (even if the Monroe Doctrine and Roosevelt Corollary still have any meaning at all). They’ve also stepped up efforts to “re-build” ties with their Southeast Asian neighbors. Is there a word in Vietnamese for BOHICA?

According to
BBC News (On line), China’s top political advisor is visiting the Lao capital of Vientiane on a “goodwill” visit, and a Chinese State Councilor is visiting with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen. Well, that could be a good thing. People should be friends, and cooperate. I just hope that the Lao and Cambodian government understand that when you reach down to pick up a snake, there is a risk of snakebite. According to BBC:

“Hun Sen highlighted the importance of China - and its powerful economy - to South East Asia.

“At times under Vietnam's umbrella, Laos and Cambodia have been receiving more Chinese investment, aid, and migration in recent years.

“Chinese state media reported Hun Sen as saying that the fast economic development of China was an encouragement not only for the Chinese people, but for people in the region.

“Laos and Cambodia have been willing recipients of growing amounts of financial and other assistance from China, from the building of roads to the migration of traders. Cambodia appreciated the long-term support and help that China has given for the economic and social development of Cambodia, Hun Sen said. Officials then signed agreements to promote co-ordination of security between the two countries, part of which will involve China donating police equipment to Cambodia.”


But before anyone joins hands and releases several choruses of “Kom-bay-ya,” we might consider another reality. The Vietnamese have been a military and political power in Southeast Asia since the end of the Vietnam War. Were it not for the Vietnamese invasion of Cambodia, the murderous dictator Pol Pot (supported by China) would have killed an additional three-million of his own people (none of which seemed to bother the consciences of many governments). Japan’s response to the genocide was simply, “Regrettable.” In 1975, when China precipitated a border conflict, the Vietnamese army decimated the Chinese. More recently, the Chinese and Vietnamese squabbled over the rightful ownership of the Spratly Islands, which many believe have the potential for rich oil fields, and the winner of that dispute may depend on which side has the strongest Navy . . . and the will to use it. Important note: China never forgets anything, ever.

Meanwhile, China has provided tens of thousands of workers to help construct a major roadway through Northern Laos into Southern China, finances of course by the China Development Bank. But surely, Cambodian and Lao political leaders would never sell out to the Chinese, even in return for personal wealth and prestige; say it isn't so! But even if that were true, doesn’t Chinese investment help to move fourth-world countries forward into the realm of “developing countries?” Oh, yes that is true. But let’s try to imagine that China has more than passing interest in the development of Cambodia and Laos. What could it be?

“Unofficial estimates of about 300,000 new Chinese residents in Laos are impossible to confirm as many Chinese live without documentation, correspondents say. The Xinhua news agency reported Mr Jia as saying that China and Laos have enjoyed "frequent contacts between leaders, ever-deepening economic co-operation and trade, mutual support and close co-ordination in international and regional affairs and expanded exchanges and co-operation in diverse areas."

“Mr Jia said he hoped that this visit will "promote continuous progress in China-Laos relationship featuring long-term stability, good neighbourliness, mutual trust, and comprehensive co-operation.”

Well, maybe. History suggests however that whenever eastern potentates begin using such rhetoric as “promote progress,” and “good neighborliness,” it’s time to report to the armory. The map may tell us the real story behind “international cooperation.”

And this is what happens when the United States ceases to become a respected world power. As we Americans begin to focus all of our attention on our busted economy, borrowing vast sums of money from ... uh, China, and the new administration begins to implement new, enlightened programs based on a spirit of cooperation and goodwill, our world is becoming an even more dangerous place. Thank goodness for President-elect Obama and Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State. But just to be on the safe side, Vietnam should prepare itself for the inevitable.

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Margins of Safety

According to the New York Times, a congressional panel fears that the next terrorist attack on the United States will involve the use of nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons. “In a report to be released this week, the Congressionally mandated panel found that with countries like Iran and North Korea pursuing nuclear weapons programs, and with the risk of poorly secured biological pathogens growing, unconventional threats are fast outpacing the defenses arrayed to confront them.” The article continued:

“America’s margin of safety is shrinking, not growing,” the bipartisan panel concluded.

“Were one to map terrorism and weapons of mass destruction today, all roads would intersect in Pakistan,” the report states, citing the country’s terrorist haven along the border with Afghanistan and its tense relations with nuclear rival India.

“Pakistan is an ally, but there is a grave danger it could also be an unwitting source of a terrorist attack on the United States — possibly with weapons of mass destruction,” the
report said.

The report is the result of a six-month study by the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism, which Congress created last spring in keeping with one of the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission.

The neat thing about the blogosphere is that it consists of people representing hundreds of vocations ranging from backgrounds in intelligence, military operations, banking, political science, education, health professions, and marketing — to name a few. Bloggers have been writing about these same possibilities for the past seven years. They formed the same conclusions, issued the same warnings, and they did it free of charge. Amazingly, the mainstream media only publishes such findings when a congressional panel releases them — as if these panelists are any more qualified than thousands of highly intelligent people who are also bloggers. We too have been warning Americans about all too cozy relationships between the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. We also have been writing about the imminent threat; we’ve said that another terrorist attack on the American people isn’t a matter of “if,” but “when.”

This is the amazing part of politics. Government officials can ignore the hundreds of bloggers, even when their concerns reveal superior intellectual analysis from news items found in hundreds of on-line international and domestic news journals; the conclusions only matter when politicians and government bureaucrats release their findings. It makes one wonder, “How much are we paying these people?”

Naturally, politicians want us to think of them as the forward edge of the spear in America’s defense, but we know better than that. Congressional panels sit around expensive mahogany tables and review notes prepared by hundreds of staff assistants, and after they have postured themselves for the most credit or in the best possible light, they authorize the release of a sanitized version of their “classified” conclusions. Voila — the deception is complete and we all think that a congressional panel has saved us from terrorists.

Of course, this is all pure balderdash. It is true that Americans are in great danger, but the threat of terrorism hasn’t abated simply because a congressional panel has released its findings. In fact, this kind of information may actually depress free market activities even further than they are now. Meanwhile, the raw questions remain unanswered: why hasn’t our government sealed our borders? Why does the State Department continue to allow Middle Eastern people unfettered access to the United States for the purpose of “attending universities?” Why do we still have illegal immigrants from Kenya living in community-assisted facilities?

Most of these problems are failures of the Bush Administration, but I honestly do not see much in the way of change and hope emanating from the Obama camp, either. We can continue to urge “moderate” Muslims to speak out against acts of terrorism, but we (should) know by now that whether moderates (if they exist) speak out will not deter extremists from their task of destroying western civilization. We (should) know by now that terrorists are always looking for new ways to attack us, even including the use of social networking devices such as “My Page” and “Twitter.” We (should) know by now that the only way to stop extremism is to locate and kill extremists. So the question isn’t what we know, it is rather what we are prepared to do.

What I hope is happening right now (in some swank boardroom with the president-elect’s logo on the door), is that Barack Obama is reevaluating his willingness to sit down with terrorists “to work things out.” I hope he will revisit his attitude toward Iran, a country busily producing atomic grade weapons components, and putting them into the hands of depraved fanatics. I hope Obama intends to make clear to the Pakistani government we will completely annihilate that country if even one of their citizens detonates a nuclear, chemical, or biological weapon inside the United States. And finally, I hope Mr. Obama and his interim cabinet thinks of Mumbai (Bombay,) India as immediately next-door, rather than some far distant place. The danger to Americans is that real.
 
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